Predicting the trend of the total index of the Tehran Stock Exchange using an image processing technique

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 MSc, Department of Accounting and Management, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Prof., Department of Finance and Banking, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Associate Prof., School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

10.61186/ijf.2024.426626.1442
Abstract
This study explores the considerable significance of candlestick chart patterns as a foundational asset within the realm of stock market analysis and prediction. As a graphical representation of historical price movements and patterns, Candlestick charts offer a distinct and valuable perspective for understanding how the financial market operates. This perspective assists us in accurately pinpointing the most advantageous times for making decisions to buy or sell financial securities, such as stocks or bonds. These charts provide insights into market trends and potential trading opportunities. We adopt an innovative approach by harnessing image processing techniques to extract and analyze patterns from Candlestick charts systematically. Our findings underscore the pivotal role of visual data in financial analysis, particularly in times of market volatility and uncertainty. Investors often resort to technical analysis strategies when confronted with erratic market trends, often relying on insights derived from chart-based analysis to guide their decision-making processes. By meticulously extracting essential insights from candlestick charts, our study aims to provide investors with more efficient and less error-prone tools. Ultimately, this endeavor contributes to the enhancement of decision-making precision and the mitigation of risks inherent in participating in the dynamic stock market landscape.

Keywords


Aminimehr, A., Bajalan, S., & Hekmat, H. (2021). A study on the characteristics of TSE index return data and introducing a regime switching prediction method based on neural networks. Journal of Financial Management Perspective, 11(34), 145-171.
Antad, S., Khandelwal, S., Khandelwal, A., Khandare, R., Khandave, P., Khangar, D., & Khanke, R. (2023). Stock Price Prediction Website Using Linear Regression-A Machine Learning Algorithm. In ITM Web of Conferences, 56. EDP Sciences.
Azizi, Z., Abdolvand, N., Asl, H. G., & Harandi, S. R. (2021). The impact of Persian news on stock returns through text mining techniques. Iranian Journal of Management Studies, 14(4), 799-816.
Babani, L., Jadhav, S., & Chaudhari, B. (2016). Scaled conjugate gradient based adaptive ANN control for SVM-DTC induction motor drive. In Artificial Intelligence Applications and Innovations: 12th IFIP WG 12.5 International Conference and Workshops, AIAI 2016, Thessaloniki, Greece, September 16-18, 2016, Proceedings 12 (pp. 384–395). Springer International Publishing.
Bahar Moqaddam, M., & Kavaruee, T. (2012). The relationship between days of the week and months of the year, Macro Variables of Economic and stock return in Tehran stock Exchange (TSE). Journal of Accounting Advances, 4(2), 1–26.
Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327.
Emamverdi, G., & Safarzade Bijar Beneh, S. (2016). Chaos and Nonlinear Stock Price Index of Tehran Stock Exchange Chaos and Nonlinear Stock Price Index of Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial Economics, 9(33), 55-74.
Fegheh Majidi, A., & Shahidi, F. (2018). The Impacts of Industrial Index, Financial Index and Macroeconomic Variables on Tehran Stock Exchange: Markov-Switching Approach. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 5(2), 1–26.
Ghaempanah, H., Tavakoli, M., Deevband, M. R., Alvar, A. A., Najafi, M., & Kelley, P. (2022). Electronic portal image enhancement based on nonuniformity correction in wavelet domain. Medical Physics, 49(7), 4599-4612.
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Friedman, J. H., & Friedman, J. H. (2009). The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference, and prediction, 2, 1-758. New York: Springer.
He, K., Zhang, X., Ren, S., & Sun, J. (2016). Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition. Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR).
Ho, M. K., Darman, H., & Musa, S. (2021). Stock price prediction using ARIMA, neural network and LSTM models. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1988, No. 1, p. 012041. IOP Publishing.
Huang, G., Liu, Z., Van Der Maaten, L., & Weinberger, K. Q. (2020). Densely Connected Convolutional Networks. IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR).
Jahangiri Rad, M., Marfou, M, & Salimi, M. (2012). Investigation of herding behavior in Tehran Stock Exchange. Journal of Management and Accounting School, 11(42), 139-156.
Jamshidi, N., & Galibaf Asl, H. (2018). Studying the effect of investors' personality on their business behavior and investment performance: Evidences of Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial Research Journal, 20(1), 75–90.
John, R., & Coupland, S. (2007). Type-2 fuzzy logic: A historical view. IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine, 2(1), 57–62.
Karbalaei Mirzaee, M. Y., Mirlohi, S., & Khademi, M. (2022). Investigating the effect of macroeconomic variables on the Tehran Stock Exchange index: Comparison of neural network and regression VAR models. Political Sociology of Iran, 5(9), 1472-1489.
Krizhevsky, A., Sutskever, I., & Hinton, G. E. (2012). ImageNet Classification with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 25, 1097-1105.
LeCun, Y., Bengio, Y., & Hinton, G. (2015). Deep learning. Nature, 521(7553), 436–444.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1990). An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading. Journal of Econometrics, 45(1-2), pp. 181–211.
Peymany Foroushany, M., Erzae, A. H., Salehi, M., & Salehi, A. (2020). Trades return based on candlestick charts in Tehran stock exchange. Financial Research Journal, 22(1), 69–89.
Porwik, P., & Lisowska, A. (2004). The Haar-wavelet transform in digital image processing: its status and achievements. Machine Graphics and Vision, 13(1/2), 79-98.
Quan, Z. Y. (2013). Stock prediction by searching similar candlestick charts. In 2013 IEEE 29th International Conference on Data Engineering Workshops (ICDEW) (pp. 322–325). IEEE.
Saeidi, P., & Amiri, A. (2009). Relation between Macroeconomic Variables and General Index in Tehran Stock Exchange. Economic Modelling, 2(6), 111-130.
Samanta, S. O. U. R. A. V., Choudhury, A. L. K. O. P. A. R. N. A., Dey, N., Ashour, A. S., & Balas, V. E. (2017). Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm for scaling factor optimization during manifold medical information embedding. In Quantum Inspired Computational Intelligence (pp. 285–326). Morgan Kaufmann.
Saghafi, A., & Mortazavi, S. (2016). Fundamental Analysis and the Prediction of Earnings with Emphasis on Role of Contextual Factors. Financial Research Journal, 18(1), 77-94.
Seif, S., Jamshidinavid, B., Ghanbari, M., & Esmaeilpour, M. (2021). Predicting Stock Market Trends of Iran Using Elliott Wave Oscillation and Relative Strength Index. Financial Research Journal, 23(1), 134–157.
Shabahang, R., & Hassani, F. (2003). How Technical patterns are used in the Tehran Securities Exchange. Future Study Management, 15(4 (59)), 17-37.
Sullivan, R., Timmermann, A., & White, H. (1999). Data‐snooping, technical trading rule performance, and the bootstrap. Journal of Finance, 54(5), 1647–1691.
Xing, W., & Bei, Y. (2019). Medical health big data classification based on KNN classification algorithm. IEEE Access, p. 8, 28808–28819.