Moslem Nilchi; Daryush Farid; Moslem Peymany; Hamidreza Mirzaei
Abstract
Abstract Volatility and risk measurement are essential ...
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Abstract Volatility and risk measurement are essential parameters in risk management programs that can affect economic activities and public confidence in the stock market. Also, these two are the keys in the studies that connect the stock market, economic growth, and other financial factors. In recent years, due to the instability in the Tehran Stock Exchange, controlling the adverse effects caused by the volatility of stock prices, predicting and modeling price dynamics, and measuring risk have become necessary for the participants in this market. In the present research, the class of hidden Markovian index models of conditional variance Heteroskedasticity (HM-GARCH) is used to predict the volatility of stock prices and accounts of the Tehran Stock Exchange. For a comprehensive review, the models are selected to include the characteristics of volatility clustering, asymmetry in volatility (leverage effect), and heavy tail of stock returns (with t-student distribution). Based on RMSE and AME criteria, the HM-EGARCH-Normal Exponential GARCH model with normal distribution is more effective than other models in predicting stock market volatility. Therefore, leverage is necessary to analyze stock market risks using hidden Markov models, but heavy tail distribution is unnecessary. The results indicate that the HM-EGARCH-Normal model appropriately assesses volatility and improves market transparency and risk management forecasts. Also, the VaR and CVaR market risk assessment post-tests using Kupiec and DQ tests do not show evidence of overestimation or underestimation.
Maryam Bazraei; Salleh Ghavidel; Ghodratollah Emamverdi; Mahmoud Mahmoudzadeh
Abstract
In this study, we examine the correlation between stock returns of Export-oriented (EOIs) and Import-oriented (IOIs) industries and exchange rates, to derive stock-exchange optimal weights, attempting to manage the risk of investors in the capital market. To do so, the ADCC and DCC models are used. The ...
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In this study, we examine the correlation between stock returns of Export-oriented (EOIs) and Import-oriented (IOIs) industries and exchange rates, to derive stock-exchange optimal weights, attempting to manage the risk of investors in the capital market. To do so, the ADCC and DCC models are used. The data consists of the stock return of the listed industries, and the daily exchange rate from 2008 to 2020. The results suggest that EOIs have a dynamic asymmetric conditional correlation, and IOIs have a dynamic symmetric conditional correlation with the exchange rate. Moreover, the results indicate that in both currency crises, the weight of optimal portfolio in all industries except pharmaceuticals, in non-crisis period is over 50% and in the crisis period is less than 50%. Accordingly, and to reduce the risk of the portfolio, in the non-crisis period, investors should invest more than half of a one-Rial portfolio to dollar exchange, and in the crisis period, they should allocate less than half of a one-Rial portfolio to this currency. In case of the currency crisis, it is suggested that investors invest in the stock of basic metals, because this industry is a pioneer in attracting currency crisis and increasing stock value of the industry through future cash flow and replacement value, and reduce the stock of pharmaceuticals and computers in their portfolio, due to attracting negative effects of the exchange market.
Mojtaba Karimi; Fatemeh Sarraf; Ghodratollah Emamverdi; Ali Baghani
Abstract
Simultaneous understanding of volatilities and changes in financial markets is very important to optimize the portfolio and risk management methods. The 2008 financial crisis led into devaluation of most assets, increased volatilities and endangered several institutional investors' survival. When the ...
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Simultaneous understanding of volatilities and changes in financial markets is very important to optimize the portfolio and risk management methods. The 2008 financial crisis led into devaluation of most assets, increased volatilities and endangered several institutional investors' survival. When the stock market' correlation is highly enhanced, risk and return management with the classic portfolio theory becomes severely challenging. In this study, to manage systematic and non-systematic risks by investors and policymakers in case of similar financial crises, the Effect of global financial crisis contagion is examined through the path of S&P500 global index, and DFM regional index of different industries of Iran Stock Market is examined using DFGM contagion test and stochastic Ornstein Uhlenbech process. The results show that Dubai Stock Market has an important role in crisis expansion into different sectors of Iran Stock Markets so that the fundamental contagion effects are channelled via this direction. Also, according to the results, the starting point of the global financial crisis contagion was the basic metals industry, and the contagin happened in metal ores and petroleum products sectors with different rates. Finally, the global financial crisis is spread into different industries of Iran Stock Market via financial links and not trough commercial ones. Identifying the direction of contagion of financial crisis provides an opportunity for investors to apply hedging and asset allocation strategies optimally.
Nasrin Rostami; Abbas Najafizadeh; Ahmad Sarlak; Esmaeil Safarzadeh
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine the asymmetric effects of banking sector and stock market development on economic growth in Iran. For this purpose, Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model used based on seasonal time series data during 1989-2017. The results indicate that the impact of financial ...
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the asymmetric effects of banking sector and stock market development on economic growth in Iran. For this purpose, Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model used based on seasonal time series data during 1989-2017. The results indicate that the impact of financial and banking development indices on economic growth is different for economic growth rates above and below 6%. Therefore, if the economic growth rate is higher than 6%, then we have a regression and when economic growth is lower than 6% will have another regression in order to effect of financial development of economic growth. In addition, results show that that the relationship between private sector credit and economic growth is much stronger than the relationship between stock market and economic growth.